feat(forecast): prévisions au débit réel du journal (issue #7)
app/forecast.py: fermetures hebdo (8 sem.), débit moy/min/max sur 4 semaines complètes, ETA en fourchette, silence sans historique. Dashboard (épuisement du backlog), bandeau milestone (alerte échéance), page /forecast (sparkline SVG, verdicts), /api/metrics étendu (weekly_closures, throughput_4w).
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"""Forecasts (roadmap #7): honest ETAs from the event journal.
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Throughput = issues closed per week, counted from board_events.
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Projections are deliberately given as a RANGE (best/worst weekly
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rate over the last 4 complete weeks) rather than a fake-precise
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date, and are withheld entirely when the journal has no closures
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to learn from — "not enough history" is an answer, too.
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"""
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from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta
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MONTHS_FR = [
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"janvier", "février", "mars", "avril", "mai", "juin",
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"juillet", "août", "septembre", "octobre", "novembre", "décembre",
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]
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MONTHS_FR_SHORT = [
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"janv.", "févr.", "mars", "avr.", "mai", "juin",
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"juil.", "août", "sept.", "oct.", "nov.", "déc.",
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]
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def french_date(d: date, short: bool = False) -> str:
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months = MONTHS_FR_SHORT if short else MONTHS_FR
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return f"{d.day} {months[d.month - 1]}"
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def _event_date(event: dict) -> date | None:
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raw = str(event.get("created_at") or "")
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try:
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return datetime.strptime(raw[:10], "%Y-%m-%d").date()
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except ValueError:
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return None
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def weekly_closures(events: list[dict], weeks: int = 8,
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today: date | None = None) -> list[dict]:
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"""Closure counts per ISO week, oldest first, current week last."""
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today = today or date.today()
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current_monday = today - timedelta(days=today.weekday())
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buckets: list[dict] = []
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for i in range(weeks - 1, -1, -1):
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start = current_monday - timedelta(weeks=i)
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buckets.append({"start": start, "count": 0})
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by_start = {b["start"]: b for b in buckets}
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for event in events:
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if event.get("event_type") != "closed":
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continue
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day = _event_date(event)
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if day is None:
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continue
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monday = day - timedelta(days=day.weekday())
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if monday in by_start:
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by_start[monday]["count"] += 1
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return buckets
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def throughput_stats(weekly: list[dict], last: int = 4) -> dict | None:
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"""avg/min/max closures per week over the last COMPLETE weeks.
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The current (partial) week is excluded: on Monday morning it
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would crush the average for no reason. Returns None when the
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complete weeks contain no closure at all.
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"""
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complete = weekly[:-1][-last:] if len(weekly) > 1 else []
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if not complete:
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return None
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counts = [b["count"] for b in complete]
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if sum(counts) == 0:
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return None
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return {
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"avg": sum(counts) / len(counts),
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"min": min(counts),
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"max": max(counts),
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"weeks": len(counts),
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}
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def estimate(remaining: int, weekly: list[dict],
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today: date | None = None) -> dict | None:
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"""Projected completion for `remaining` items at the real pace.
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Returns {"done": True} when nothing remains, None when there is
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no throughput to project from, else dates: central (avg rate),
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earliest (best week), latest (worst nonzero week, if any).
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"""
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today = today or date.today()
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if remaining <= 0:
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return {"done": True}
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stats = throughput_stats(weekly)
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if stats is None:
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return None
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def at_rate(rate: float) -> date:
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days = remaining / rate * 7
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return today + timedelta(days=max(1, round(days)))
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result = {
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"done": False,
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"avg_per_week": round(stats["avg"], 1),
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"central": at_rate(stats["avg"]),
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"earliest": at_rate(stats["max"]) if stats["max"] > 0 else None,
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"latest": at_rate(stats["min"]) if stats["min"] > 0 else None,
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}
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return result
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def eta_label(est: dict | None, done_text: str = "terminé") -> str | None:
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"""One-line French label for banners and cards (or None)."""
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if est is None:
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return None
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if est.get("done"):
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return f"✅ {done_text}"
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label = f"à ce rythme ≈ {french_date(est['central'], short=True)}"
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if est.get("earliest") and est.get("latest"):
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label += (
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f" (fourchette {french_date(est['earliest'], short=True)}"
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f" – {french_date(est['latest'], short=True)})"
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)
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return label
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@@ -16,12 +16,14 @@
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<nav class="nav-pills">
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<a href="/" class="nav-pill active">🏠 Projets</a>
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<a href="/focus" class="nav-pill">🎯 Focus</a>
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<a href="/today" class="nav-pill">🌅 Aujourd'hui</a>
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<a href="/my" class="nav-pill">👤 Mes issues</a>
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<a href="/activity" class="nav-pill">📰 Activité</a>
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<a href="/briefing" class="nav-pill">📊 Briefing</a>
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<a href="/search" class="nav-pill">🔍 Recherche</a>
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<a href="/capture" class="nav-pill">⚡ Capture</a>
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<a href="/digest" class="nav-pill">🧠 Digest</a>
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<a href="/forecast" class="nav-pill">🔮 Prévisions</a>
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<a href="/wall" class="nav-pill">🖥️ Wallboard</a>
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<button type="button" class="nav-pill palette-trigger" title="Palette de commandes (Ctrl+K)">⌨️ Ctrl K</button>
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</nav>
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@@ -86,6 +88,9 @@
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{% endif %}
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<div class="card-footer">
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<span>{{ repo.open_issues_count or 0 }} issues ouvertes</span>
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{% if repo.forecast_label %}
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<span class="forecast-line" title="Prévision d'après le débit réel du journal (fermetures par semaine)">🔮 {{ repo.forecast_label }}</span>
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{% endif %}
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{% if full in stats %}
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<div class="mini-progress">
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{% for col in ['backlog','todo','in_progress','qa','review','done'] %}
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@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="fr" data-theme="dark">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<meta name="csrf-token" content="{{ csrf_token }}">
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<title>Prévisions — Kanbante</title>
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="/static/css/style.css">
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</head>
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<body>
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<header class="app-header">
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<a href="/" class="logo">📋 Kanbante</a>
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<nav class="nav-pills">
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<a href="/" class="nav-pill">🏠 Projets</a>
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<a href="/focus" class="nav-pill">🎯 Focus</a>
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<a href="/today" class="nav-pill">🌅 Aujourd'hui</a>
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<a href="/my" class="nav-pill">👤 Mes issues</a>
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<a href="/activity" class="nav-pill">📰 Activité</a>
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<a href="/briefing" class="nav-pill">📊 Briefing</a>
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<a href="/search" class="nav-pill">🔍 Recherche</a>
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<a href="/capture" class="nav-pill">⚡ Capture</a>
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<a href="/digest" class="nav-pill">🧠 Digest</a>
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<a href="/forecast" class="nav-pill active">🔮 Prévisions</a>
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<a href="/wall" class="nav-pill">🖥️ Wallboard</a>
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<button type="button" class="nav-pill palette-trigger" title="Palette de commandes (Ctrl+K)">⌨️ Ctrl K</button>
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</nav>
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</header>
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<main class="focus-main">
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<section class="briefing-card">
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<h1>🔮 Prévisions — « on finit quand ? »</h1>
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<p>Réponse honnête, calculée depuis le journal : fermetures réelles par semaine (8 dernières), débit moyen/min/max sur les 4 dernières semaines complètes, et fourchette plutôt que faux chiffre précis. Sans historique de fermetures, aucune prévision n'est affichée.</p>
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</section>
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{% for project in projects %}
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<section class="briefing-card forecast-card">
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<h2>📂 {{ project.full_name }}</h2>
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<div class="forecast-flex">
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<svg class="sparkline" viewBox="0 0 168 48" role="img" aria-label="Fermetures par semaine">
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{% for bar in project.bars %}
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{% set px = (bar.h * 0.42)|round|int %}
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<rect x="{{ loop.index0 * 21 }}" y="{{ 44 - px }}" width="15" height="{{ px if px > 0 else 1 }}" rx="2">
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<title>{{ bar.label }} : {{ bar.count }} fermée(s)</title>
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</rect>
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{% endfor %}
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</svg>
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<div class="forecast-nums">
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{% if project.stats %}
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<p>Débit : <strong>{{ project.stats.avg }} / semaine</strong> en moyenne (min {{ project.stats.min }}, max {{ project.stats.max }})</p>
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{% else %}
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<p>Débit : <strong>pas assez d'historique</strong> — aucune fermeture récente dans le journal.</p>
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{% endif %}
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<p>Restant ouvert : <strong>{{ project.remaining }}</strong>
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{% if project.eta_label %} · 🔮 backlog {{ project.eta_label }}{% endif %}</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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{% if project.milestones %}
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<ul class="forecast-milestones">
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{% for ms in project.milestones %}
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<li>🎯 <strong>{{ ms.title }}</strong> — {{ ms.remaining }} restante(s){% if ms.due_on %} · échéance {{ ms.due_on }}{% endif %}{% if ms.eta %} · 🔮 {{ ms.eta }}{% endif %}{% if ms.verdict %} · {{ ms.verdict }}{% endif %}</li>
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{% endfor %}
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</ul>
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{% endif %}
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</section>
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{% else %}
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<div class="briefing-card"><p>Aucun projet actif.</p></div>
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{% endfor %}
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</main>
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<footer>
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<span>Kanbante v{{ version }} · prévisions = journal des fermetures, pas boule de cristal</span>
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</footer>
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{% include "_palette.html" %}
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<script src="/static/js/palette.js" defer></script>
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<script src="/static/js/live.js" defer></script>
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</body>
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</html>
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